Truth Social’s Crypto – based Gambling Service: A New Entrant in the Prediction Market Landscape

Truth Social, the social media platform with majority ownership by US President Donald Trump and his family, is set to introduce a cryptocurrency – based gambling service. This new offering, Truth Predict, will directly compete with the highly popular Polymarket.

1. The New Service – Truth Predict

Operated by Trump Media & Technology Group, a publicly – traded company, Truth Predict will enable Truth Social users to place cryptocurrency – based bets on the outcomes of various events. These events span from sports competitions, political races, to economic shifts. Typically, individual predictions are formulated as binary questions, for instance: “Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?” or “Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?”

2. The Context of Prediction Markets

Prior to the 2024 US presidential election, when prediction markets first gained mainstream attention, their proponents presented them as a superior alternative to traditional polling, touting them as a more efficient “source of truth.”

3. Partnership and Market Competition

Truth Predict is being launched in collaboration with an affiliate of the crypto exchange Crypto.com. It is entering a market currently dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently secured funding at substantial multibillion – dollar valuations.

4. Polymarket’s Regulatory History and Return

The launch of Truth Predict coincides with Polymarket’s plans to return to the US. Polymarket left the country in 2022 as part of a settlement with the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a US regulatory body. The CFTC alleged that Polymarket operated an unregistered derivatives trading market. In November 2024, the FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan as part of a US Department of Justice investigation into whether the platform continued to accept bets from US residents, in violation of the settlement – based moratorium. (Coplan was neither arrested nor charged.)

However, with the change in the political landscape when Trump returned to the White House in January, the regulatory environment shifted. Under the Trump administration, regulators have been discontinuing litigation against high – profile crypto companies, and the DOJ has instructed prosecutors to overlook certain crypto – related crimes. In July, Bloomberg reported that the DOJ had concluded its probe into Polymarket without filing any charges, clearing the path for the company’s return to the US. As Zach Hamilton, founder of crypto startup Sarcophagus, noted in an interview with WIRED, “If you had to point to one reason [crypto prediction markets] are able to come back to the US, you have to point to the Trump administration. Donald Trump. I mean, that’s it.”

5. The Trump Family’s Financial Interests

Even before the launch of Truth Predict, the Trump family had financial stakes in the expansion of prediction markets in the US. In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser. Subsequently, in August, Polymarket received an investment from 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of this deal, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board.

These connections between the Trump family and Polymarket, established as Polymarket was seeking re – entry into the US, have drawn criticism. Critics claim that the investment could lead to a conflict of interest, suggesting that the Trump family could potentially profit from policy changes instigated by the Trump administration. Jeff Hauser, executive director at the Revolving Door Project (an organization focused on scrutinizing the behavior of elected officials), stated, “No one is saying members of the president’s family cannot engage in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country. But Polymarket is the subject of heated political controversy. As such, the investment reflects a significant conflict of interest—and an avoidable one.” In response, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to WIRED, “Neither the president nor his family have ever engaged, or will ever engage, in conflicts of interest.” Polymarket, TMTG, and 1789 Capital did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

6. Potential Intra – Family Business Competition

The launch of Truth Predict also sets the stage for a situation where different aspects of the Trump family’s business empire could be in competition. Chris Perkins, managing partner at crypto VC firm CoinFund, remarked, “From a venture capital perspective, many of us don’t like to invest in competing projects. We try to avoid that. We try to identify category winners.” Already, businesses associated with the Trump family are operating competing bitcoin treasuries. In June, a dispute emerged regarding which corporate entities were allowed to launch an “official” Trump – branded crypto wallet.