Navigating the Aftermath of Trump’s Tariff Policy Changes: A Multifaceted Analysis

I initially believed I had outmaneuvered Donald Trump’s tariffs, yet I was, at least to some extent, mistaken.

On August 29, the US government officially terminated an 87 – year – old regulation that had permitted Americans to import small packages duty – free. This policy, known as the de minimis exemption, had enabled shipments below a certain value threshold – $800 in recent years – to pass through customs without incurring any duties. For years, policymakers had been engaged in debates regarding changes to the de minimis rule. However, when the alteration finally occurred, it reverberated throughout the global e – commerce and shipping industries.

Twelve days prior to the new rule’s implementation, I placed an order on Etsy for a custom – made set of wooden slats to enhance the appearance of my living room cabinet doors. This was my second transaction with the same independent seller, and I was aware that they were based in Ukraine. I had hoped that by making the purchase early enough, I could circumvent the de minimis deadline and avoid tariffs. Regrettably, this was not to be.

Now in September, my package has yet to arrive. Denys, the shop owner, explains that my order became ensnared in a bureaucratic quagmire. It was shipped in the days leading up to the end of the de minimis policy, at a time when customs agencies had not yet established clear new procedures for tracking small packages and applying tariffs. “Based on our observations, it may take another one or two weeks for customs to fully adapt,” Denys stated on Tuesday.

The total value of the order was less than $40, well below the previous de minimis threshold. Nevertheless, due to processing disruptions and delays, my package is now subject to Trump’s country – specific tariffs. The tariff rate for goods from Ukraine is only 10 percent, and Denys has indicated his willingness to absorb the additional costs himself. His rationale is to maintain the satisfaction of international customers “towards Ukrainian brands in general.”

While I will not have to bear the additional cost for this particular purchase, this experience highlights a more profound aspect of the de minimis conundrum. Although media attention has predominantly focused on how Trump’s new tariff regime impacts corporate giants such as Amazon, Walmart, Shein, or Temu, it is small foreign business owners like Denys who are feeling the brunt of the changes.

Unexpected Winners

In fact, Chinese e – commerce behemoths may already possess an edge in this new environment. Since May, Chinese packages have no longer been eligible for the de minimis exemption. This implies that Shein and Temu had a few months to acclimate to the new regulations before the Trump administration extended them globally. Intriguingly, the elimination of the de minimis exemption has not impeded their overall growth. The Chinese publication LatePost reported that the global sales of Shein and Temu in 2025 are higher compared to 2024.

Seema Shah, Vice President of Research and Insights at Sensor Tower, a market intelligence firm, notes that in the second quarter of 2025 (when the new tariffs came into effect), Temu and Shein reduced their US advertising spending by 87 percent and 27 percent respectively, compared to the first quarter of the year. Paid marketing has been of particular significance for Temu and Shein, as they face higher user churn rates than their American counterparts. But if they were skeptical about the profitability of their US business in the face of new trade policies, why would they invest in acquiring more US users? “From a business perspective, it makes sense. There’s no point in spending money when negative publicity surrounds your brand,” Shah remarks.

However, Shein and Temu did not entirely abandon marketing. Instead, both companies opted to reallocate their ad budgets to overseas regions perceived to have lower geopolitical risks and more abundant growth opportunities. According to Sensor Tower, during the second quarter, Shein allocated 22 percent of its total advertising spend to the US market, down from 39 percent in the first three months of 2025. Temu’s US spend, meanwhile, decreased from 47 percent to a mere 9 percent. Consequently, Shein and Temu’s sales in countries other than the US, such as the UK, have soared to record highs.

Yet, the dip in US advertising spending did not persist. Shah’s data indicates that after reaching a nadir in June, both companies began to increase their US ad spending in July. In August, Shein spent more on US marketing than it did in August 2024.

These figures suggest that Chinese platforms have formulated a new strategy: continue shipping products despite tariffs, pass some costs to consumers, and maintain competitiveness by focusing on building independent supply chains and warehouse networks to reduce shipping costs.

App store rankings indicate that this new strategy is yielding results. After a brief decline in popularity earlier this year, as of Wednesday, Shein and Temu once again ranked among the top 5 apps in the shopping category of the US Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Temu and Shein did not respond immediately to requests for comment from WIRED.

Behind the Curve

The major Chinese platforms had been anticipating the end of the de minimis exemption for over a year and were able to swiftly realign their logistics strategies when the tariffs took effect. The same cannot be said for independent shops.

Denys, the Ukrainian Etsy shop owner, anticipates the need to raise product prices to remain viable. “If the new tariffs persist, prices will inevitably increase by at least 10 percent in the future,” he says.

He has recently started collaborating with a local Ukrainian shipping company, NovaPost. This company has stepped in to assist sellers in navigating customs procedures and has pledged to bear part of the fee increases for local businesses. The situation in Ukraine is relatively less chaotic compared to other parts of the world, where many postal companies have completely ceased sending packages to the US due to ongoing confusion regarding the details of Trump’s trade policies.

I believe that we all stand to benefit from the ability to purchase from small vendors worldwide. Over the past few years, I have procured a 3D – printed topographic map from Canada, art prints from Germany, and Denys’ woodwork from Ukraine. I did not deliberately seek out foreign brands, but modern global e – commerce platforms have provided me with access to a broader range of products, often at lower prices than those available in local retail stores. Short of learning carpentry myself, Denys’ Etsy shop in Ukraine is likely the most viable option for obtaining affordable customized woodwork in my New York City home.

However, with the end of the de minimis exemption, many Americans may choose to curtail their purchases of artisanal goods and other non – essential items from abroad. If this occurs, small sellers will be the most severely affected. “This mainly impacts impulse purchases and non – essential items. It doesn’t affect the price of necessities like milk, for example,” Juozas Kaziukėnas, an e – commerce platform analyst, told my colleague Boone Ashworth.

I am still awaiting the arrival of my wooden slats, which Denys assures me should soon clear customs. I hope that businesses like his can endure in this new economic ecosystem. Otherwise, I may have no alternative but to take up carpentry, though who knows what tariffs I would have to pay on my new woodworking tools?

This is an edition of Zeyi Yang and Louise Matsakis’ Made in China newsletter. Read previous newsletters [here].